In the wake of the midterms elections, Will Bunch has laid down a powerful case, against those who say Joe Biden is too old and unpopular to run again, that Democrats would be crazy to reject him as the party’s candidate for 2024. As a once-reluctant Biden supporter myself, Bunch zeroes in on an idea that I hadn’t been able to fully articulate: that Biden is the special ingredient holding together a Democratic, pro-democracy coalition that has now stepped up to support the party and reject GOP radicalization in the last three consecutive election cycles. In Bunch’s reckoning, he’s still able to function as a consensus candidate for a diverse group that includes younger voters, women, African-Americans, and other Americans repelled by the anti-democratic GOP; the implicit point is that there’s no guaranty another Democrat could play this role, or that we’d end up with such a candidate, following what Bunch describes as a potential “chaotic free-for-all” of an open Democratic presidential primary.
But equally important to Bunch’s argument is why it’s important to hold this coalition together: that there is a very good chance that the GOP candidate in 2024 will be a committed authoritarian whose election would very likely mean chaos and extreme damage to democratic government in this country. Whether it’s Trump redux, Ron “God annointed me with an Italian last name so I’d appear even more of a fascist than otherwise” DeSantis, or Tucker “Great Replacement Theory” Carlson, it’s a safe bet that the GOP will maintain its current anti-democratic trajectory at least through 2024. As Bunch puts it, referring back to Franklin Roosevelt’s campaign for a fourth term in the climactic days of World War II, why change horses in midstream, when the American struggle over democracy versus authoritarianism is still very much in play, and the forces of extremism are still gunning for power?
This latter part of Bunch’s case gives form to my particular sense that the Democrats would be foolish to overly discount the power of Biden’s incumbency in 2024. As the sitting American president, he would be able to counter the GOP candidate’s lies and authoritarian aims with the authority of his office and the example of his conduct. With further election subversion and right-wing violence likely in the lead-up to the election, Biden’s presence on the ballot would make the stakes crystal clear, and allow his leadership to provide a real-world, real-time refutation of MAGA madness. In a worst-case scenario, which unfortunately cannot be ruled out, a Republican attempt to overturn the election results by violent or extra-constitutional means would be less likely to succeed with Biden already in the White House and in control of the executive branch.
Of course, this line of argument highlights the fundamentally defensive nature of the case for Biden running again in 2024 — it rests on an idea of preservation of what Bunch describes as a “fragile” coalition that has been able to beat back the MAGA threat over the last four years, and the notion that the highest priority is to protect our democracy. Bunch observes that such a defensive strategy is in fact the point:
This is all very much in keeping with the groundbreaking research by the Harvard political scientists Daniel Ziblatt and Steven Levitsky, the authors of 2018′s How Democracies Die, who showed that the countries that successfully thwarted dictatorships were the ones in which rival factions dropped their ideological differences to instead rally behind a defense of democracy. It wasn’t 100% clear before Tuesday’s midterms, but the Biden coalition — the Democratic base, joined by Gen Z voters who might normally prefer the democratic socialism of a Sen. Bernie Sanders, and white suburban “Never Trumper” ex-Republicans — is beginning to look exactly like what the authors described. This alliance must be preserved at all costs.
Nonetheless, it’s worth entertaining the counter-argument that what the Democrats really need is a candidate of and for a new generation, who would energize the existing coalition, plus supercharge younger voters who are key to the continuation of Democratic victories into the foreseeable future. And, indeed, in normal circumstances, this would be a healthy and natural development for our democracy. But the biggest problem I see is the risk involved, since we don’t have a guaranty that such a leader would emerge, or would be in a position to win a general election following a competitive primary. In this sense, arguing for a second Biden run means foreclosing the possibility of an even better candidate out of fear of the tremendous downsides; you might even say that the fight against GOP authoritarianism is causing a short circuit in the democratically healthy process of generational leadership change.
But I think this would be exaggerating the defensive and conservative nature of a second Biden run and term in office in a couple of ways. First, although the presidency is a singularly powerful position in American government, it’s hardly the only consequential office in the land. While only one person can be president at a time, we can have up to 50 states governors who can simultaneously demonstrate their visions for the future and their leadership skills to the American people — not to mention hundreds of representatives and senators. To state the obvious: a Biden run in 2024 would merely postpone the necessary generational hand-off at the highest levels of U.S. government — one that we are already seeing occurring in the House, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepping down and making way for new leadership (though, it should be pointed out, leadership that is hardly a radical departure from her own).
We also need to understand more clearly that the future fight for democracy, and for social and economic progress, will depend not just on a president who understands the stakes, but a mass progressive movement that can push back on the interconnected layers of white supremacism, misogyny, and Christian nationalism that are driving the radicalization of the Republican Party. Just as the GOP is propelled by such forces, the Democrats need the assistance of millions pushing for gender equality, environmental justice, and further democratization of American government at the local and state levels. I think a case can be made that the existence of such a movement, inchoate though it currently is, constitutes a significant reason why the centrist Biden has worked to push through a raft of legislation and policies — including the climate change-combatting Inflation Reduction Act and the forgiveness of some student loans — that we might not have otherwise expected (such policies also speak to Biden’s responsiveness to his base, a significant clue to his once and future popularity among Democratic voters).
For those of us who have been worried by Biden’s age, and by fears that a certain lack of energy has leached into his administration at large, the midterm results provide some needed reassurance, and bolster the case that Biden should run again. Somewhat counterintuitively, the willingness of so many citizens to vote for Democrats despite Biden’s atrociously low approval ratings provides a ray of hope for 2024, offering the prospect that many millions would still be willing to vote for Biden against an unacceptable Republican candidate, even if they don’t personally like or support him. In this sense, I think those who have pointed out that Biden is far less of a lightning rod than figures like Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton are spot on; he simply doesn’t generate similarly extreme emotions from either his party or the GOP. Of course, his current low popularity is hardly ideal, and I hope that circumstances change to revive his fortunes over the next couple years, whether it’s through a steady lowering of inflation, a turning of the tide in Ukraine, or confrontation with a Republican House of Representatives that is sure to bring the MAGA crazy in all its mendacious, racist, gun-toting glory.