On a grand scale, the United States is acting out the cliche twist ending of horror movies, where the monster everyone thought well-killed comes back and embarks on a final round of slaughter against protagonists who prematurely stood down. The coronavirus delta variant is pushing the United States toward record levels of infection and hospitalization, as a combination of letting down our collective guard and the reluctance of millions to do their civic duty by getting vaccinated have formed a perfect environment for the delta variant to spread.
Here in Oregon, the same overall vulnerabilities have led to a huge upsurge in covid cases, with the added ironic factor that because of Oregon’s previous relative success in stemming infections, there’s less natural immunity against the virus among those who haven’t been vaccinated. The state hit a record daily high of 2,971 cases yesterday, and has averaged a pandemic high of 2,020 cases a day over the last week. With 226 people in Oregon ICU beds, the state is now using 93% of its intensive care capacity. Even more disturbingly, health officials predict that by early September, the number of people hospitalized for covid is expected to result in a 500-bed shortage in Oregon hospitals.
But beyond the broader national factors that have made our state vulnerable, questionable policy decisions by local health authorities and Governor Kate Brown appear to have made the state’s population a sitting duck for this latest wave of death and disease. As state health authorities warned of the dangers posed by the delta variant, county leaders across Oregon simply refused to support or implement the most basic, common-sense measures — such as requiring masking in public places —that could help slow the infection rate. This cut the legs out from county health authorities, many of whom appeared wary of acting without political backing. Instead, county officials averred their faith in the ability of Oregonians to make their own decisions to protect their health, even as evidence mounted that too many of those citizens were doing no such thing. The refusal to implement countermeasures also inevitably signaled to Oregonians that there was no real threat to the public health, when in fact the threat was increasing and severe. This lack of leadership and the decision to ignore basic science is now killing and sickening Oregonians.
Fairly or unfairly, the mass incompetence of county level leaders placed the burden of action on Governor Kate Brown. Until far too late, though, Brown declined to accept this burden. As The Oregonian outlines, until this week, when she announced a statewide indoor mask mandate that goes into effect today, Brown continued to insist that local officials take the lead on coronavirus health measures — despite the fact that these same officials repeatedly indicated they would not, and never actually did. (Yesterday, Brown also issued a mandate that teachers and health care workers in the state receive vaccinations by mid-October, following a mandate a week ago for executive branch workers to be vaccinated within the same time frame). Indeed, in a state where many local politicians tried to burnish their conservative bona fides by denouncing Brown’s health measures earlier in the pandemic, such resistance and health policy illiteracy was completely predictable.
Combined with warnings not just from Oregon state health officials, but from national officials as well, the reasons for Brown’s dilatory and insufficient action are hard to understand. The most credible explanation is that she feared that faster, strong state-level action would result in a backlash, which is a point that Oregon Health Authority Director Patrick Allen has made:
Allen defended the lack of earlier intervention, saying a portion of the public has become unreceptive to warnings and wouldn’t have followed preventative measures a month ago, even if the governor ordered them.
“Even today, with what we know today with where our hospitalizations are, with the amount of disease in the state, the actions that the governor is taking are being characterized by some as ‘oppressive,’” Allen said. " ... A month ago, with the reality on the ground being what it was, we would have had a huge problem with trying to get some people to follow those” mandates.
If Brown in fact followed advice based on the idea that the only time you’re going to get public buy-in is when a surge is well under way, this would fly in the face of everything we’ve learned to date about how to get the coronavirus under control — by acting before it has had a chance to spread exponentially. But equally bad is the possibility that Brown hesitated to act because of fear of non-compliance or backlash — in the face of county officials doing nothing, any action by the governor would be better than no action. In fact, various county health officials have indicated how important it is for the state to act, in order to give them political cover at the local level to push protective measures.
It’s also notable that the state GOP continues to push divisive, nonsensical, and anti-science responses to the pandemic. The Oregonian reports that, “The Oregon House Republican caucus described both of the new requirements set by Brown, a Democrat, as ‘oppressive.’ Senate Republican Leader Fred Girod, of Lyons, criticized the governor Wednesday for what he characterized as a lack of clear standards.” In a statement, Girod said that, “[T]hese mandates seem to be driven by left-wing activists who want a permanent pandemic to push forward unpopular policies.” Girod’s remarks made me laugh out loud, but are also a reminder that anything Brown does will be met by the Republican opposition with vitriol and inflammatory lies intended to divide Oregonians. In the face of this, Brown has a particular responsibility to stand up for science and common sense, even if it inevitably provokes a discredited opposition.
The comments of health experts regarding the state’s ability to flatten the curve in the coming weeks, even with the mask mandate, are not encouraging. Let’s hope that Governor Brown is giving serious consideration to further measures, such as limiting the number of indoor occupants at retail businesses, and implementing vaccine requirements for leisure activities such as movie theaters and sports events. This is not a local pandemic, but a statewide one, and requires a statewide response. As overburdened hospitals in southern Oregon send patients to the Portland metro area, we’re reminded, as if we needed reminding, that we’re all in this together — like people keep saying, the coronavirus doesn’t care about borders, county or otherwise. The governor is obligated to protect the state against the incompetence of local officials who have refused to do their jobs, and citizens blinded by ideology or disinformation from getting vaccinations that could stop covid in its tracks.