Dieu Have Mercy! — Counting Down to the French Presidential Election

This may come as a surprise to some — but while we here at The Hot Screen try to pull no punches when writing about the American political scene, letting loose with fire, brimstone, and assorted burning bon mots as we see fit, we try to practice a little more humility in opining on what’s happening in other countries.  The U.S. is where we live and breathe; every other nation is observed at a distance, and it seems better to exercise humility when armed only with imperfect knowledge.

Nevertheless.

The potential ascension of National Front leader Marine Le Pen to the presidency of France fills us with a nausea that a dozen Camus-brand dramamine capsules couldn’t keep at bay.  The National Front’s vision for France strikes us as atavistic, racist, anti-Muslim, demagogic, and just plain ugly.  Le Pen has worked vigorously to clean up the sordid image of this party founded by her father, and that has long horrified the great majority of the French.  Now, in the midst of decades-long economic malaise and fear of terrorist attacks, the party has surged to its highest popularity ever.

The anti-Muslim rhetoric of the National Front is particularly appalling.  France has a different model of nationality, citizenship, and the role of religion than the United States — but we don’t know how one can look objectively at the challenges France faces and not conclude that the Muslim community is being scapegoated for a whole raft of problems for which that community can’t rationally be responsible for.  No real vision of human rights can countenance blaming an entire populace for the crimes of a very, very few.  But, of course, scapegoating is deeply seductive; it frees everyone else from responsibility, and creates a sense of inclusion for those doing the scapegoating.

When Europeans demonize a religious minority, we all need to exercise the deepest skepticism as to motivation and impact on that minority.  The idea that France is somehow existentially threatened by a small fraction of its populace says far more about French insecurity than a mysterious outsized power of the minority, and should raise all sorts of alarm bells. 

It seems to us that the four major presidential candidates reflect not just France’s, but the western world’s, inability to come to grips with the economic and social challenges of our time.  Whether from the right or left side of the spectrum, there is a struggle over how to make the economy work for all; there are various flavors of deals or confrontation with the devil of global capitalism, as well as degrees of embracing or rejecting a vilification of perceived outsiders as a way to remedy or distract from these economic problems.

For us, Jean-Luc Melénchon is the most intriguing of the major candidates, as he seems most committed to addressing the French malaise from a leftward direction: he advocates massive government spending and potentially withdrawal from the European Union if it doesn’t amend its laws to allow things like greater budget deficits for its members.  He also seems aware of the environmental barriers to our current economic arrangements, and has spoken of a 100% renewable energy-fueled economy.  This piece in The Nation and this one in the New Republic have provided a good introduction to the man and his politics.

We anxiously await Sunday’s vote with a comfort croissant in one hand and a reassuring wedge of brie in the other.

New Republic Writer ID’s, Eviscerates Emerging Trump Normalcy Meme

Brian Beutler at the New Republic notes signs of a sea change in recent coverage of Donald Trump: a growing consensus that Trump is trimming the sails of his rightward tendencies, and moving to some sort of centrist politics.  As Beutler effectively outlines, though, Trump’s retreat or rebuff on radical policies like the ban on Muslim immigrants or his previous statement that NATO is obsolete, need to be measured against the problematic centrism that he’s now said to occupy. 

Beutler writes “It is strange, for instance, to describe the combined law enforcement policy of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, economic policy of adviser Gary Cohn, and foreign policy of Trump’s Twitter feed and the military generals in his good graces as ‘centrism.’  Trump has instead taken the three-pronged fusionism of standard movement conservatism—pro-corporate economic policy, religious right-wing social policy, and hawkish foreign policy—and stripped away any pretense of concern for racial equality and inclusiveness. Describing that kind of platform as “centrist” is both inaccurate and a gift to reactionary forces in society.”  

It isn’t surprising that mainstream commentators would want to believe that the crisis has abated and that our institutions have tamed Donald Trump; after all, this would suggest that there’s nothing fundamentally flawed about our politics and economy.  But the election of Donald Trump is a wake-up call to all of us that our country is at a profound crossroads.  We face an environmental crisis of literally civilization-threatening intensity; levels of economic despair and inequality that have helped bring to power a would-be authoritarian leader in the person of our current president; ongoing and escalating U.S. military action that is far too close in appearance to a war on Islam to ever be successful; and unaddressed structural racism that has millions of African-American citizens fearful that a routine traffic stop might turn into a death sentence.  And yet, we’ve elected to power a president, and a Congress, that will not address these issues in any meaningful way, because they don’t actually think they’re problems, and who are, in fact, committed to perpetuating them.

Apart from the fact that the president has no real plans or intentions to address the most fundamental challenges we face, his moral and mental incompetence mean that we confront a whole separate set of dangers no matter what particular policies he is or isn’t working to implement.  There’s an ongoing investigation into the Russian role in the last election and possible collusion between that nation’s intelligence apparatus and the Trump campaign.  Donald Trump and his family apparently intend to use the presidency as a path to personal enrichment, legal or customary conflict of interest rules be damned.  The president appears to be embracing reckless belligerence in place of "mainstream" foreign policy that is itself already thoroughly militarized.

And the president has already demonstrated a propensity to abuse the power of his office in frightening ways.  Among other offenses, he slandered President Obama with talk of impeachable wiretapping, then instructed intelligence agencies to find evidence to fit his baseless accusations.  He has also used his bully pulpit to literally bully individual citizens, a grotesque and frightening mutation of this twitter-loving chief executive.  This is to say nothing of the collection of incompetents, fools, and ideologues who have unfortunately been granted the privilege of serving as members of his cabinet, and who are already showing plenty of evidence of serving private avarice, not the public good.

Let’s not be lulled into thinking that the worst is somehow behind us.  We can’t let ourselves lose four years not addressing head-on the existential issues of our time.  And we can’t stop working to constrain, block, and ultimately eject from office this joke of a president that the GOP has seen fit to inflict on a country that deserves, and needs, so much better.

Will the Dems Pick Up a Seat in Georgia Today?

This article at Politico has a nice rundown of some of the history, evolving demographics, and economic issues in Georgia’s sixth congressional district, where a special election today holds the real possibility of a Democrat either being elected in place of Republican Representative Tom Price, who has joined the Trump administration, or forcing a runoff against a Republican candidate.  Democrat Jon Ossoff is benefitting from being in one of the few ongoing races right now that allow Democratic rank and file to show their displeasure with the president; Ossoff has received more than $8 million in contributions from upwards of 200,000 donors, most of them from out of state.  As the article points out, that amount of money approaches what is spent on senate runs in Georgia, and has allowed Ossoff to plaster the district with unprecedented levels of advertising (at least for a Democrat).

The Hot Screen is particularly struck by the ethnic diversity of the district — 30% of the residents are non-white, and 21% of the populace wasn’t born in the U.S.  For those who are used to thinking of races in the South as often orienting along a black-white continuum, these are eye-opening figures.  And such numbers don’t bode well for a G.O.P. that has decided that its central electoral strategy is to make itself the party of white Americans.  At the same time, a deep delve into the particularities of this district should be a reminder that every district is unique, and that a one-size-fits-all approach to politics is inadequate.  As the Democrats have had hammered home to them in the last several election cycles, demographics is not destiny; people aren’t just going to vote for them because the other party has signaled its disdain for the color of their skin or their country of origin.

This Georgia contest comes after last week’s special election in Kansas, where the Democratic candidate ran close to his opponent despite the fact that Donald Trump had won the district by almost 30 points.  What happens in Georgia Tuesday will be another important piece of the story of how electorally significant the backlash against Trump is, and whether it can help put otherwise Republican-safe seats in play come 2018.

Is Donald Trump Our Country's Stay Puft Marshmallow Man?

ghostbusters choose the form of the destructor stay puft marshmallow trump

The Hot Screen admits to mixed feelings of validation and fear at having joked last week about Trump liking to blow shit up, after the cruise missile strike against Syria but BEFORE the dropping of the largest conventional bomb in the history of civilization on an ISIS complex in Afghanistan.  Trump has demurred as to whether he ordered the bomb into action, but it’s obvious that either a direct order or assent to an idea presented to him led to this ostentatious display of old-school firepower.  Peter Bergen has an article at the CNN website titled "Why 'the Mother of All Bombs' and Why Now?", which seeks logical explanations, such as a need to address the deteriorating war against the Taliban in Afghanistan; but we feel the answer lies as much in the irrational, ignorant, and violent impulses of the commander in chief as much as any conscious strategy.  We've said it before as an ironic question and we’ll double down now by just saying it straight: Trump obviously likes to blow shit up, whether it’s our democracy or ISIS fighters.  This is not a man with a subtle grasp of power: bigger is surely always better in his mind.

It’s never reassuring to hear a weapon described as “the largest non-nuclear ordinance” in the U.S. armory, with its suggestion of brushing up against the lower end of the spectrum of nuclear terror.  We even find its MOAB (for Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb) acronym mildly freaky, with its unnecessary biblical connotations and association with barren Utah landscapes.  And isn’t it all a little too Saddam-Hussein-in-Uncle-Sam-drag to be calling this the “mother of all bombs”?

But as unsettling as all the telling verbiage that surrounds talk of the bomb are the actual circumstances of its use.  Sixteen years after the initial U.S. invasion to root out al-Qaeda and depose the Taliban, the U.S. is still in Afghanistan fighting against. . . al-Qaeda and the Taliban, PLUS, of course, ISIS.  Likely among other things, the MOAB drop was meant to signal toughness and resolve in the fight — but the pure symbolism of the act is only accentuated by the ghastly tonnage of the explosion.  One bomb, after all, is not going to win the fight, in part because it’s not at all clear that the U.S. military, elected officials, and foreign policy professionals really understand WHY we’re still fighting in Afghanistan, or what victory might look like.

Afghanistan is a country that has been at war in one form or another for going on 40 years straight; its territory and populace have been pummeled and eviscerated by countless bombs.  This makes us think of this single MOAB drop being as much a sign of pointless and redundant violence as anything else, a signal that Trump and his military advisors still believe, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there’s a military solution to the endless Afghan fight.

In fact, on three fronts this past week, we’ve seen plenty of evidence that Donald Trump is getting pretty jacked up about superficially simple military solutions to complicated foreign policy issues.  From Tomahawks aimed at Syria, to big momma MOAB, and then over to North Korea, against whose further nuclear testing the U.S. has indicated it may respond militarily.  Of the three conflicts, North Korea is by far the scariest.  As discussed previously, there are many ways that things can get very, very bloody extremely quickly in North Korea.  It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in foreign affairs to grasp that two militaristic mentalities with irreconcilable needs (the U.S. asserting that North Korea cannot have nuclear weapons, North Korea feeling the threat from the U.S. as its ultimate reason for wanting them) aren’t necessarily going to end up at a peaceful resolution.

And so thrust into our faces in increasing doses every day is the greatest danger that a Trump administration has always presented to our country: that this embarrassment of a president might get us into a war.  We never imagined that the possibility would be upon us so quickly; it seems a symptom of Trump’s overall incompetence, that having failed so quickly on the domestic front he is turning to distractions abroad, where a president can act with far less constraint than in domestic politics.  

To be fair, we did sort of see this coming, what with all the generals Trump has named to security posts, and his own basic belligerence, ignorance, and lust for power.  Recall that Defense Secretary Mattis needed once-every-half-century approval from the Senate to fill that post so soon after being on active duty — a small but troubling augury of the impending hyper-militarization of American foreign policy under this president.  And there is a good case to be made that it is not simply Trump’s personality, but his lack of his own vision for foreign policy coupled with an assertive Pentagon and a lack of typical civilian controls, that is helping drive military over diplomatic solutions.  And the context of the American war on terror can't be overstated: tragically, this country has grown accustomed over the past 15 years to a permanent state of war, so that increased militarization under Trump might seem like a matter of degrees rather than a full departure from what came before.  

What worries us at this nerve-wracking moment is that a sense of ironic distance, denial, and fatalism seems to have overcome the body politic.  Even as people express their fear, we don’t have a sense that they REALLY think Trump will get us into a war.  Certainly you are not seeing the mass demonstrations that might have been expected warning Trump off his belligerence in Syria and North Korea.  In fact, polls have shown that a majority of Americans supported the missile strikes against Syria, and it is a depressing but real possibility that support in that one arena is emboldening Trump to consider force in the much more dangerous conflict with North Korea.

Is a basic non sequitur preventing us from fully grasping the danger we collectively face — that it feels incomprehensible that someone as absurd as this president could be the end of us all, or at least the end of an often nasty but relatively robust international order?  And yet, with his early embrace of destabilizing global violence, it sometimes feels as if we've unwittingly chosen the form of our destruction: Donald Trump, our country's very own Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.

This Is How Trump Gets Re-Elected

It may be that in ordering the U.S. military to attack a Syrian air base, Donald Trump made the right decision for the specific reasons his administration is giving: to punish President Bashar al-Assad for using chemical weapons this week against his own people, and to deter Assad from using them again.  But the thing is, we can’t possibly know yet if this was the right decision; all we have is this single, violent move.  We will only know if it was successful if Assad never uses chemical weapons again, if Donald Trump pursues the many diplomatic moves necessary to support this policy, and if it doesn’t end up contributing to the overall dynamics of violence, disarray, and increasing chaos in Syria that the United States is presumed to oppose.  This a lot of ifs beyond a single feel-good moment of kicking a little Assad ass.

Of course, we don’t even know if the reason the president has given for launching the attack is actually the real reason.  This is because Donald Trump has proven himself to be a man who thrives on lies, who lives as unquestioningly within a circuit of lies as an innocent pig wallowing in its own personal hog heaven of mud and muck.  He and his appointees have spent the first months of his administration systematically degrading our ability to actually believe a single word that comes out of their mouths: from obsessive quibbles over inauguration crowd counts, to the lie that President Obama wiretapped him, to whether or not Donald Trump supported holding a vote on health care (news flash: he did), lies have been as much the coin of the Trumpian realm as in any tinpot dictatorship out of a Marx Brothers-meet-Charlie Chaplin fever dream.  Can we really trust that the stated reasons for the attack are the real ones?

Then there’s the broader context of this attack: first off, the 24-hour-a-day disaster that is the Trump administration.  It’s fresh off failures on its anti-Muslim travel ban and Obamacare repeal, and is mired in the Russian election interference investigation.  This administration is such a bundle of damaged goods that any seemingly decisive action it takes in foreign policy has to be looked at with extreme skepticism, as a possible effort to change the conversation.  

Other factors amplify the need for such skepticism.  Former Clinton-era state department official James Rubin points out that only days before the attack, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley signaled that Assad’s removal from power was not a priority for the United States.  This was followed by Secretary of State Tillerson and spokesperson Sean Spicer seconding her view.  The U.S. had also turned its back on Syrian refugees through Trump’s travel ban, suggesting American indifference to the plight of ordinary Syrians.  As Rubin puts it, “The unsurprising consequence of this shift was a newfound confidence within the Assad regime that it need not worry about paying a heavy price if its forces committed new acts of barbarity aimed at demoralizing the nation’s remaining rebels.”

The Trump administration is pressing a narrative of Trump’s decisiveness and toughness, but this episode equally raises a storyline of catastrophic missteps by Trump followed by a hasty, ill-thought-out response to Syria’s chemical attack.  So why are so many people praising the missile attacks when Trump’s incompetence in the first place may well have cleared the way for this chemical attack?  It is natural and justified to feel hate against Assad, and to want revenge for what he’s done to his own people: but the satisfaction that supporters of the strike are feeling is being dangerously decontextualized from story of the mistakes Trump may have made.  Joan Walsh of The Nation has an excellent article on the Syria attack, and among other things she notes that “any liberal who praises these missile strike has to account for what comes next.” She points out that Trump’s lack of care about diplomacy is well known, which I will interpret as another way of saying that it’s a little bit crazy to praise a single action by Trump when we know full well that he’s likely not capable of the follow-up actions to make this missile strike meaningful in terms of stopping Assad’s use of chemical weapons.  

This attack should also be viewed with serious skepticism in light of the Russian factor: not just the Russian interference in our election and possible collusion between Trump campaign officials and this effort — and Trump’s need to distract us from this — but also the fact that the Russians are active in Syria in support of Assad.  A danger that has been theoretical up to now has become uncomfortably possible: that Trump might act dangerously aggressively toward the Russians as a way to mitigate the perception that he was only elected through Vladmir Putin’s assistance.  Putting aside the question of what the hell either nation is doing in Syria in the first place, the idea that Russia and the U.S. both have combat forces in the same country, sometimes in support of opposing factions, rightly strikes the dispassionate observer as batshit crazy.  The U.S. warned Russia that the attack was coming, I assume to minimize the possibility of Russian casualties; but the fact that there could have been Russian casualties suggests a recklessness to Trump’s action that has not been adequately considered either by politicians or in the news coverage.

The Donald Trump who launched these attacks is the same Donald Trump whose temperament, moral turpitude, inexperience, and authoritarianism make him unfit for the presidency.  The one question to be answered is this: do you trust Donald Trump to take the complicated, delicate, and difficult steps needed to prevent future gas attacks, let alone bring the Syrian civil war to a close?  If the answer is no, then it makes no sense to support this one-off attack.  This is the same sort of context-free approval that has already gotten us into so many problems around the world to begin with.  A related point: President Obama chose not to respond militarily when Assad launched a previous gas attack against his own people.  Are opponents of Trump who nonetheless support Trump’s action here really so sure that Trump made the right decision, and Obama did not?  

It seems probable that Donald Trump will draw all the wrong lessons from these missile strikes.  Some of the same dark traits that make him unfit for the presidency — a lust for vengeance, an ignorant belligerence, a limitless craving for approval — will drive him to use military force again, and again, based on the positive response he got with his Syria attack.  This is just the beginning.  Anyone who opposes this insane presidency is likely to regret cheering on the missile strike these last few days.

In the way that these strikes have at least temporarily reset the conversation around Trump, and led to support from otherwise skeptical quarters, we can see the rough shape of a strategy whereby Trump eventually wins re-election to become a two-term president.  A cynical take on what happened in Syria is that he created a problem that he then purported to solve, using the broad discretion accorded the president as commander-in-chief.  Many commentators had previously noted the risk of Trump using military conflict to distract the public or rally it behind him.  This missile strike shows how easily this can be done, at least in terms of the president’s ability to order military action with little or no Congressional restraint.

It’s not like we haven’t been here before.  Exhibit A is the presidency of George W. Bush; after all, how else did Bush get re-elected but by turning his catastrophic failure to defend the U.S. against the attacks of 9/11 into a reason to vote for him, in the form of the ill-conceived war on terror and invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq?

The Illogical Illegal Immigration Debate

The Hot Screen has long refused to take seriously Republican bloviation about the evils of illegal immigration for one main reason: the lack of proposals to deter businesses from hiring illegal immigrants in the first place.  As this New York Times editorial points out, the last big immigration bill (in 1986!) existed in a world in which this topic could at least be addressed, if insufficiently.  Thirty years on, nativists like Donald Trump have embraced this blindness, so that we are left with a supposed crisis both perfect and perfectly illogical.  The right tells us that millions of illegal immigrants continue to pour into our country, like an unstoppable brown wave, to take our jobs (despite the fact that illegal immigration has dramatically fallen off in the past few years) — but with so much single-minded emphasis on how American jobs are being “taken,” the obvious question is always skipped over — who, exactly, is giving them all these jobs?  Well, American businesses, that’s who!

So instead of building a Great Berlin Border Wall at the cost of billions to keep these people out, why don’t we just pass some laws to make it impossible to get hired without proper documentation?  The grotesque, grandstanding spectacle of stopping ‘em at the border must always take center stage, in order to obscure the logic of taking away the employment magnet, and making the border wall redundant.  Suppressing this basic, common-sense idea enables demonization of immigrants by picturing them as an immoral horde who shoulder all the blame.

At least in the ‘80s, cracking down on employers who hired illegal immigrants was seen as an important aspect of the overall immigration issue.  Today, though, you can measure the corruption and inanity of the anti-immigrant push by the way the burden of the problem has been pushed entirely onto the immigrants themselves.  This silence, as they say, speaks volumes, and I would venture that the role of businesses in exploiting illegal immigration is the key to understanding the overall issue.  So many American industries employ illegal immigrants, from agriculture and construction to meatpacking and restaurants, that they can be said to be the number one reason we have illegal immigration to begin with: without jobs to be had, far fewer people would come here illegally.  After all, Republicans admit as much when they falsely claim that immigrants are stealing American jobs — these people are coming here to work, not mooch.

The benefits to business are also the central reason why it has taken this long for illegal immigration to move from bogeyman of the right to an issue they actually have the governing power to do something about: too many traditional centers of Republican influence have seen the benefits of illegal labor.  But now Donald Trump has ginned up illegal immigration into an existential crisis for the country, and a reckoning is at hand between the xenophobic and low-cost labor wings of the party. (For a particularly bracing shot of schadenfreude, be sure to check out this article about Trump-supporting California farmers worried about losing their cheap labor — how could they have known, right?)

But the pass we have arrived at on immigration must be seen as a bipartisan failure, and evidence of the Democrats’ share of hypocrisy and misjudgment on this issue, and indeed a source of their peril as well.  Democrats are responsive to some of the same business pressures as the Republicans, and have hardly advocated for an employer crackdown — all the more telling when this is the most obvious and effective line of defense against the inanity of building a border wall.  In going slack on this crucial piece of the puzzle, Democrats have indirectly enabled the supercharging of a narrative that places blame for illegal immigration solely on the illegal immigrants and the porousness of the long southern border.  In turn, this has placed Democrats in the politically fraught position of advocating for citizenship paths for long-time illegal immigrants, and adopting the morally necessary position of protecting the human rights of illegal immigrants, which inevitably make them vulnerable to charges of being more sympathetic to illegal immigrants than American workers. 

The lack of employer sanctions in all the Trumpian talk of cracking down on illegals suggests a dark and exploitative future for illegal immigrants in our country: since employers will still be able to hire illegal immigrants with little fear of sanction, while the immigrants are ever more fearful of deportation, their employers will have even less incentive to pay them fairly or provide decent working conditions.  It is a recipe for increased exploitation.

Finally, this is as good a place as any to call out a grating piece of racist dogwhistling that’s gotten under my skin lately: the way that the right is able to use the neutral phrase “illegal immigrants” when everyone knows that we’re talking specifically about Latino immigrants (particularly when the context is building a wall on the southern border).  That is, we’re not talking about illegal immigration in general, but illegal immigration by certain national and ethnic cohorts (which, admittedly, is by far the greatest source of illegal immigration).  The decontextualized term “illegal immigration” provides polite language for the fact that this effort is specifically directed at the world of Latino immigrants, and of course also serves to ignore their actual human (and humanizing) realities of nationality, race, creed, religion, and the myriad other things that would make them not simply job-grabbing invaders but people driven to escape their countries for a thousand reasons.

Leashing Up the Dogs of War in North Korea

It’s one thing to be convinced, based on the endless evidence presented during the painfully long 2016 primaries and campaign, of Donald Trump’s fundamental unfitness for the presidency.  It’s another, more chilling thing to daily contemplate the specific areas of mortal danger over which he now has responsibility.  Exhibit A among these dangers may well be North Korea’s nuclear aspirations.  North Korea is surely a puzzler for many Americans: the country combines cartoonish anachronism with atomic danger, as if some distillation of the Cold War had made it to our early 21st century — which is actually true, as far as it goes.

But origins aside, the central reality is that North Korea is a country whose leadership has become convinced that the only way it can defend the regime is to possess nuclear weapons that will deter the United States from attacking it, while the United States is committed to ending North Korea’s nuclear program.  And as this disturbing New York Times piece lays out, this inevitably means that the United States and North Korea are locked in an extremely dangerous conflict.  Now that the United State is putting pre-emptive action “on the table,” it’s become even more dangerous.  Here’s the key quote for understanding how unstable the dynamic is: 

“North Korea knows it would probably lose any war. Should one occur, its plans call for a full-scale, last-ditch retaliation to stop the Americans in their tracks.  

This strategy, borne of desperation, creates a risk that has long chastened American war planners: that North Korea would perceive even a limited strike as the start of a war and respond with its full arsenal.”

Here’s my question: Can Donald Trump be trusted to understand the specific danger here — that the fundamental ambiguity of what North Koreans might “perceive” as a “limited strike” means that the United States might, by miscalculation, set off a chain of events that could leave millions, most probably in Asia, dead?  On the one hand, we have a paranoid, nuclear armed power willing to contemplate horrific death tolls to defend itself; on the other, we have a president whose hallmarks include casual belligerence, basic incuriosity, and no grasp of the facts in too many areas to count.  This is a situation where what seems like a small misstep could foreseeably escalate into apocalyptic horror.  

When I say that opposition to Donald Trump’s presidency must be rooted in ensuring his political destruction and removal from office as soon as possible, it is situations like North Korea that are uppermost in my mind.  The risks are too great, and there is too high a possibility that once an immediate crisis is upon us, it would be too late to turn things around.  This means that in fact a national crisis is already upon us, whether we like it or not, and one of the tasks at hand is to persuade the unconvinced that the time for full-scale opposition to Trump is now.  One crucial challenge is to demystify and broadcast issues like the North Korea conundrum, and at a minimum to make sure that the public spotlight is on them, so that Donald Trump cannot so easily tweet us into nuclear war.

A Good Day Not to Be Donald Trump

The scuttling of the American Health Care Act on Friday was good news for anyone who believes health care should be a basic right for every American.  With the non-stroke of a pen, 24 million Americans could breathe a little easier about not losing their coverage in the foreseeable future.  And by revealing the limits of President Trump’s power and influence, including over his own party, it was good news for his opponents; this bill’s withdrawal was another puncture to the cartoonish aura of invulnerability that is one of the most worrisome things about him.  Repeal of Obamacare was a central campaign pledge, and Trump isn’t going to be able to fake news his way out of all the headlines of failure.

This is also a valuable lesson about the complexity of politics and social change in our country.  I’m going to speculate that opposition to Obamacare became such a proxy for opposing Obama himself, for both Republican politicians and voters alike, that too few noticed the shifting of the ground beneath their feet: enough conservative voters benefitted from Obamacare, whether they realized it or not, or at least embraced the basic assumption that citizens should have health care, that when it came time to actually repeal it, sufficient will was simply not there on the part of their representatives.  In a larger sense, then, it should provide some comfort to progressives fearful of a major assault on the remaining elements of the New Deal and other liberal legislation.  As this piece by Brian Beutler indicates, none other than Senator Mitch McConnell has pointed out that the Republicans will need much bigger majorities, like the Democrats have held in the past, if they are to be able to roll back all the programs they want to.  This speaks to a basic fact: in the United States, there is not only a bulwark of consensus for long-standing social insurance programs like Social Security, but an appetite for new ones like health care.

I would like to think that people are also beginning to see through the insistence of conservatives like Paul Ryan that the greatest good in the world is to cut taxes on the rich, in the name of economic efficiency; from their perspective, private citizens, particularly the wealthiest among us, will always more effectively invest their money than the government ever will.  But the issue of health care highlights the irrelevance of this argument to many issues: what could be a better an investment than the health of our fellow citizens?  And even a cold-hearted, economics-only analysis would say that healthier workers are more productive workers.  But of course, the ideology of such folks is more ruthless and sadistic than the mechanistic one I just mentioned: to them, it's obviously better to have sick workers scared for their basic needs and more willing to accept shitty jobs with bare bones benefits, than people secure that their society, acting through the mechanism of their government, has got their backs.

Democrats have won a reprieve with the failure of Obamacare repeal; but they should also take what has just happened to the Republicans as a cautionary tale.  For too long, the G.O.P. opposed Obamacare with little thought as to what should replace it — obviously many oppose government-supported health care as a matter of belief, but some don’t, and should have been ready to put forward a reasonable replacement.  It is not too early for Democrats to talk loudly and boldly about a renewed push for broadened health coverage, and real fixes to the Affordable Care Act’s weak points.  The Republicans have created a public perception of incompetence; while the strategy of keeping out of the way of this trainwreck of a bill has worked out so far for the Democrats, it’s not a viable long-term plan, not for the good of the party or the good of the country.

Trump’s election win amid promises to actually protect the social insurance benefits of his voters means that there is more room for maneuver than many Democrats realize: given rising public perceptions of Trump’s incompetence, the failure of Obamacare repeal being Exhibit A, there is an increasing opportunity to take back the mantle of protecting the common man that Trump has attempted to appropriate.  Progressives need to continue to push the Democratic Party back to its roots, toward economic security for all.  Voters will listen and respond to straight talk and common sense, particularly as Trump's message becomes increasingly garbled.  

Finally, while I'm not as pessimistic as this guy that Trump supporters may take the defeat of Obamacare repeal as yet more evidence that the president should press on in an authoritarian direction, I do think that the largest threat that Trump presents may have just gotten bigger: that faced with failure in the realm of conventional politics, he has an increased incentive to assert his powers in areas where presidential power is less constrained — namely in matters of war and national security.  Andrew Sullivan is beating this warning drum again this week, and is right to do so; it is worth noting as well the ominous escalation of American involvement in Syria, about which The Hot Screen will soon have more to say.

The Populist Paradox: Getting Beyond the Hate

The election of Donald Trump has its dark trans-Atlantic parallel in the rise of right-wing movements across Europe; we are facing a disturbing international phenomenon, and figuring out its roots as well as its national variations will be key to stopping and reversing this trend towards authoritarian, racist, anti-Muslim, and anti-Semitic politics.  To this point, the New York Times has a complementary pair of stories this week about the growing electoral prospects of the far right in both France and Germany via the growth of the National Front and Alternative for Germany.  Both offer good on-the-ground reporting as well as larger insights about what is and might be going on.

Populisms of both the right-wing and left-wing varieties are on the rise around the Western world: in the United States, not just Trump but Bernie Sanders succeeded beyond the wildest mainstream imaginings this past election cycle.  And in Europe, left-wing movements have prominently arisen in Spain and Greece.  Whether on the right or left, these trends have generally been observed to be a response to economic inequality and stagnation, a sense of powerlessness among voting populations, and a feeling that an economic elite has gained too much power.

In some ways, an optimist might look at a party like Marine Le Pen’s National Front, and see that this is a movement with real differences from what we’re used to thinking of as conservatism in the United States.  There’s much more talk of economic equality, more consideration of things like protecting benefits that seem to partake more of socialism than any free market ideology.

But as is described in studies and books (such as in John Judis’ recent The Populist Explosion), right-wing populism often identifies an “other” beyond monied interests as part of the problem, such as immigrants who are taking away jobs, to explain the economic difficulties their country faces.  And indeed, the right-wing populist situation in both Germany and France involves the increased mainstreaming of a chilling and hateful scapegoating of vulnerable minorities; the photo of National Front members with a poster showing France subdued under the shadow of minarets is particularly nauseating and emblematic of the nastiness involved.  (The notion that France is under some sort of imminent threat of occupation by marauding Muslims becomes even more fraught when you stop to consider the various French interventions in the Muslim world over the past several years, including in Mali, Libya, Iraq, and Syria.)

A right-wing populism that claims to oppose inequality, economic stagnation, and the power of elites, but that riles up its voters by scapegoating immigrants and religious minorities as being equally responsible for their discontent, carries the threat of establishing a nasty, illiberal status quo that ends up solving no real economic problems, and enabling greater persecution of vulnerable populations as politicians double down on this one “threat” they can more easily exert some control over — as opposed to, say, truly challenging entrenched undemocratic power.

The central complication is that, just as in the U.S., the populist right nonetheless has identified, and promises a response to, a definite economic malaise, where parties in the center and the left are perceived to have failed.  On the one hand, there is a fundamentally democratic element in saying that ordinary citizens should have more control over their economic destiny; after all, drawing a line between where democracy ends and economics begins has in some ways been the central conundrum of our age, and is at the root of many of our greatest problems.  But as we see in the United States, this democratic notion has been dangerously tied an authoritarian solution, in which Donald Trump would act on behalf of the people to make things right, even if it means asserting maximal powers and subverting other institutions of government, such as the courts.  (In contrast, witness Bernie Sanders’ many assertions about ordinary people needing to get involved with politics, and his followers' moves to take over the Democratic Party from the bottom up.  For Donald Trump, there is only politics from the top down.)

Both articles in the Times raise a central irony — the way that the right in France and Germany has subverted something that makes those countries admirable — taking in millions of refugees and other immigrants from outside the E.U. — by using this humanitarianism to drive fears of a racial and religious invasion by outsiders.  (And of course, it’s not just humanitarianism that has led France and Germany to welcome immigrants — these newcomers have also created many benefits for the economy, as they have also done in the United States.)  The idea that a relatively small group of immigrants could somehow cripple and undermine German and French society also raises the question of how little faith the Germans and the French have in their own cultures and societies: to an outsider, it seems far more likely that the dominant culture would absorb the newcomers, rather than the other way around.  And if there are issues with immigrants not integrating into their new societies, surely there are productive remedies for dealing with this; it’s obvious that demonizing newcomers is the opposite of welcoming them.

And yet, this fundamental insecurity about the strength of their societies exists.  On the one hand, all this scapegoating of dark-skinned immigrants who take people’s jobs seems like displaced aggression against the intra-European immigration that has been enabled under the European Union, in which citizens of one EU member can cross borders without fuss and work in another country.  The fears of cultural assault associated with these non-European immigrants likewise seems to be tied to fears of losing national identity on account of the European Union.

There is also the intriguing possibility raised that Germany is particularly, and ironically, susceptible to nationalistic, xenophobic appeals because of its post-WWII policy to downplay nationalism; one interviewee suggests that this lack of identity has left people feeling an “inner emptiness.”  Germany is one of the most extreme examples possible regarding issues of nationalism and identity, and the fact that even conscious attempts to move beyond nationalism are facing such challenges calls for close consideration.

But here I will use the extreme to pivot to what is, at least for me, one of the most important questions to answer in this time of political peril: How can a truly democratic politics energize people without resorting to nationalistic appeals that seem to so easily slide into xenophobia, racism, and religious discrimination?  Another way of putting this: How does the left compete with a right-wing vision that’s so very comfortable with demonizing not just immigrants, but even other citizens, to rile up its supporters?  Because what we are seeing in Europe right now appalls and frightens me — I have trouble comprehending that a continent that experienced the Holocaust would, within living memory of that horror, see the rise of politicians who thrive on religious hatred and demagoguery, deploying not just anti-Muslim slander, but anti-Semitism as well.  It can’t just be about stopping these movements; it has to be about how we create a politics, and a society, that makes these movements unthinkable and taboo.

Time to Swat Down Civil-Rights Smashing SWAT Team Use

The New York Times has an extremely important and disturbing investigative piece in today’s paper about the use of SWAT teams to execute low-level search warrants across the nation, a practice that has led to the deaths of dozens of Americans, and the terrorization of thousands.  It’s a problem that wouldn’t be happening without a breakdown of legal restraints, a demented “war on drugs” now entering its umpteenth decade, and a massive dearth of common sense; the article also cites Supreme Court decisions and lazy judges as part of the background.

But there’s also an overarching class and racial dimension that is sitting in plain view: this is something being done disproportionately to lower-income citizens, and to people of color.  It summons a vision of two nations: one where citizens go about their daily business without fear, a second one where any evening a militarized police squad will break down your door, toss in a few flash-bang grenades, and gun down your family dog.  More than this: it summons up nothing less than the vision of U.S. troops busting into houses in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Since when are American citizens treated like possible insurgents in the (deeply immoral and counter-productive) war on terror?  The war on drugs continues to amaze and appall with its ability to descend to new extremes and cruelties.  

Widespread drug use and addiction are clearly fed by the harsh economic realities faced by increasing numbers of Americans, not by some sort of growing moral failure; witness the rise of opioid addiction that is now decimating communities across the rural U.S.  But on top of the injuries of joblessness and drug use now comes this third plague: over-the-top policing and avoidable harm to innocents.  

And it turns out that the proceeds of the drug seizures usually go to the police departments, providing another perverse incentive for this brutalizing activity to continue.

In a small sign of hope, it turns out that a lot of police are deeply skeptical of this tactical approach to serving warrants, including the National Tactical Officers Association.  In fact, one of the idiocies of this SWAT approach is that it unnecessarily risks the life of police officers for the sake of relatively low-level offenses.  Clearly this is not a better known issue than it is because it’s affecting the least powerful members of our society.  But if progressives are serious about revitalizing our democracy and making it work for everyone, no matter your income bracket, stopping this demented reign of terror against non-violent criminals and innocent bystanders needs to gain much higher priority.

Trump Drags U.S. Allies Into Deranged Vendetta Against Barack Obama

This past week, we’ve had the non-privilege of not one but two significant and telling snubs of close U.S. allies by the Trump administration.  First, in the White House’s continuing hapless efforts to defend Donald Trump’s false claims that President Obama had him wiretapped, Sean Spicer referenced a story from Fox News that claimed Obama had used British intelligence to do the alleged deed.  The Brits have pushed back vigorously, although despite some muddled reports to the contrary, the White House has not officially apologized to the U.K.  Angering our closest ally should be reckoned as collateral damage in the ever-more-deranged effort to slander Barack Obama for non-existent crimes, and another indication of how Donald Trump places the interests of Donald Trump ahead of those of the country.

The second incident was the one-two combo that happened in Donald Trump’s meeting with Angela Merkel.  Trump initially was unwilling to shake Angela Merkel’s hand, which is a fine treatment for the leader of another country closely allied to the United States.  More significant, though, was Trump’s comments later in the meeting that Merkel and Trump shared in common the fact that they had both been wiretapped by Barack Obama, alluding to the disclosures sparked by Wikileaks releases in 2015 that the U.S. had listened to Merkel’s phone conversations.  Pretending to have found a point of commonality with Merkel, Donald Trump in fact re-visited a sore spot in U.S.-German relations for the purpose of impugning Obama in a guilt-by-association manner - the U.S. eavesdropped on Germany, so it did the same to him - in pursuit of his dangerous vendetta against the former president.  Again, he chose to damage our relationship with an ally to serve his own personal, and delusional, purposes.

In both of these incidents, we need to constantly be aware that it is not just Trump’s reputation, but the reputation of the United States, that is being damaged.  This may seem abstract to most people, but alienating friends can do immeasurable damage if it begins to affect their willingness to trust the U.S. and cooperate with us on issues that affect us all, from economic issues to terrorism and the environment.  I worry we are still in the beginning stages of the damage that Trump is doing, when it all just seems like so many words to most people, with the concrete, pernicious effects to be seen months and years down the line.

Does Health Care Debate Carry the Seeds (Germs?) of a Progressive Resurgence?

The future of Obamacare and the odds of the Republican-drafted American Health Care Act passing in some form have been the dominant political story for the last week and a half now.  The compressed debate and the fact that the new law is meant to do away with Obamacare have combined to capture my attention and interest in a way that the year-long-plus debate over the Affordable Care Act never quite did; call this my own personal silver lining in an otherwise ugly situation, in which the health care fate of literally millions of Americans hangs in the balance.  

The movement of the political discourse into a variety of detailed questions around the provision of health care raises a very important caveat about what has seemed to be Donald Trump's ability to dominate the political scene.  In the realm of broad strokes and sucker punch tweets, Donald Trump can act like a king; but in the nitty gritty world of legislation, he's just one of the guys (and apparently not very competent).  No amount of huffing and puffing by the commander in chief can fully distract people from the very personal way in which health care affects them, and the literal life and death importance of how this legislation plays out.  Some people have made the case for "normalizing" Donald Trump by making sure to engage him on just this everyday political playing field, and I have to admit that we have some early evidence that they may be on to something.

Over at the New Republic, Brian Beutler has been knocking out a series of insightful pieces that combine analysis of the Republican legislation with the deeper history of Obamacare and how the Republicans have come to be in such a confounding and perilous pass.  This article from a couple days ago directly and indirectly hits on some larger point that few are focusing on in the heat of the moment.  Beutler dares to extrapolate from the current Republican rush to implement their own health care bill, and concludes that in jamming through a flawed bill at breakneck speed, they are opening a political space for Democrats to act with similar speed on healthcare when they return to power.

The idea that the Democrats will return to power, hopefully sooner rather than later, is in the first place an incredibly inspiriting one; yet, absent a (quite possible but less likely than not) catastrophic turn of events that cements Trump and the Republicans' hold on government still further, Democrats will in all likelihood have their turn again.  If nothing else, the Republicans' attempts to do away with a flawed but functioning, and certainly salvageable, health care law, in a way that highlights the trade-off between health care for millions and tax cuts for a rich, precious few, should serve to clarify the healthcare debate going forward.  The Republican Party can try to wish it away as much as they want, but 20 million Americans have health care because of Obamacare, which is success by even the most basic measures.   More than this — as Beutler points out, the Democrats now have open to them a pathway to implementing their preferred health care approach once they are back in the majority (particularly if the Republicans fail to pass any legislation), including de facto universal coverage. 

Although we are clearly playing defense at the moment, it is not too soon for progressives to begin articulating an alternative vision of health care for all as an answer to the cruelty and incoherence of Republican attempts to roll back the Affordable Care Act.  And health care is a microcosm (though sort of a macro as far as microcosms go!) of the larger political challenge: articulating a durable agenda that speaks to the very palpable desire across the country for real solutions to pressing problems, from the economic plight of the working class to rolling back climate change.

Offering hope rather than fear has always been the likelier road to success in American politics; Donald Trump may be feeding off and fueling the energies of a rancid, zero-sum, white nationalistic movement that is deeply rooted in our undemocratic economic arrangements, but it will sooner or later put him at a great disadvantage when faced with a reality-based, optimistic vision for economic fairness and respect and equality for all.

A Brief Observation on the Fundamental Weirdness of This Health Care Moment

As we've seen over the last week, the Republicans' proposed Obamacare repeal bill is a bit of a clusterf*ck.  It's already aroused opposition from House conservatives and a group of Republican senators.  Major medical groups have announced their opposition, and almost needless to say, the Democrats are not on board.  Some are now speculating the bill was actually designed to fail, as a way to basically punt on this issue and save the Republicans from a protracted internecine fight on health care policy.  I'm not on board with this theory, but it does open up a good perspective on the fundamental strangeness of our political situation.  After all, the bill if passed would screw over literally millions of people who voted for Trump, to whom he promised even better health care than ever, and no changes to Medicare or Medicaid.  And whether failure was baked into the bill, or whether failure is seen as a possibility, you can see Trump positioning himself, as only Trump can do, by foisting failure of Obamacare on President Obama, even going so far as to say that Obama actually planned for it to fail, after he left office, for unspecified nefarious reasons.

Saturday Afternoon Non-Massacre?

Some short-lived high drama involving the refusal of U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara to resign after being asked to do so along with 46 other Obama-appointed attorneys: short-lived because President Trump has, in short order, fired him.  There's nothing unusual about the administration's request that these attorneys resign, but it is unusual for one of them to refuse.  This story is still developing, but I am guessing Bharara's refusal is connected to his previous statements in November that President Trump and Jeff Sessions had asked him to continue in his position.  Indeed, the Washington Post is reporting that Bharara was confused as to whether the request for mass resignations applied to him.

As this article details, Bharara has gone after Republicans and Democrats alike during his tenure as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York.  I'm particularly gratified by his willingness to take on New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has always rubbed me the wrong way, and whose presidential ambitions fill me with a foreboding for the sake of the Democratic Party; the party needs new blood, not someone whose advisors have been accused of bribery.  And indeed, it is not beyond the realm of possibility, as Josh Marshall notes in this post at Talking Points Memo, that Trump's initial impulse to retain Bharara is related to the fact the attorney has been going after New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio's fundraising practices (the TPM post is worth reading for its overview of the possibilities around why this firing played out like it did).

Walden Gone Wild

Oregonians appalled by the Republican Party’s proposed legislation to gut Obamacare and replace it with reduced coverage that will leave as many as 15 million people without insurance have been forced to face an additional galling fact: that one of their own is central to this effort to screw over millions of Americans.  Representative Greg Walden, chairman of the House Commerce and Energy Committee that is helping draft and approve the legislation, is a central figure in pushing this legislation through — despite the fact that in his eastern Oregon district, more than a third of the population is on Medicaid.

As this New York Times piece about his role notes, “[Walden] must reconcile the political goals of his party, which is committed to repealing the 2010 health law, and the interests of his state, where officials say the law has been a big success. In 2010, nearly one in five Oregonians lacked health coverage. Today, state officials say, 95 percent of Oregonians have coverage.”

The real humdinger here is that in supporting the Republican health care legislation, Walden is not at all reconciling two competing political goals — he’s embracing one, and disregarding the other.  Oregon has achieved that 95% figure in part through the mechanisms of Obamacare, including Medicaid expansions, which according to the Times cover nearly one-fourth of Oregon’s population.  But under the proposed legislation, instead of the federal government covering 95% of Medicaid costs, it will only cover 65% of them starting in 2020.  For some perspective, Oregon’s current 5% contribution, which kicked in this year and costs $350 million, is already causing budget headaches for the state.  A 35% contribution would run the state's share into the billions.  What has been a great and indeed live-saving deal for thousands of Oregonians, and for the state, paid for through taxes on the richest citizens of our country, will now become a crippling financial burden for Oregon, and likely will mean many of those people will either no longer receive coverage, or no longer have coverage remotely comparable to what they have now.  And this is on top of the non-Medicaid cuts to subsidies that are also planned, which will impact thousands of additional people.  Walden is playing the good soldier for the Republican team, but at the price of screwing over literally hundreds of thousands of Oregonians.

Walden seems well-regarded by his fellow Oregon representatives, and perhaps they know something we don’t about his willingness to protect the state from Republicans’ vengeful and ill-conceived attempt to do away with Obamacare, which though far from perfect has expanded coverage to at least 20 million additional Americans.  And Walden’s constituents have every right to be represented by him — he was reelected by 72% of voters in 2016, and he's served in Congress for sixteen years now.  However, the larger Oregon population equally has a right to defend its own interests against this Republican representative who has defied state interests for the sake of party.  In some ways, I have to confess that it feels somewhat pointless to write about this, as clearly the Democrats have written off the possibility of ever capturing Walden’s district.  But his role in upending Obamacare, and in carrying poison water for the deranged and erratic Donald Trump, needs to be highlighted.  No one should ever get a pass for fucking with Oregon, no matter how large their margin of victory.